Letters
December 2025
The year in review – 2025 was a strong year for our equity (stock) portfolios – closing comfortable ahead of the S&P 500 Index for the year.
April 2025
Summary: It may take several months to know the effective (final) tariffs imposed by the U.S. on every major country. The Trump announcements were the worst case expected, injecting great uncertainty about future economic impacts.
December 2020
On March 23, 2020 the S&P 500 Index was down roughly 31% from the beginning of the year. Markets had gone from worry to total panic in 3 terrifying weeks.
March 2020
My first big market crisis was the 1987 Black Monday Crash, when stocks dropped 23% in one day. It was scary as hell.
December 2019
What a difference a year makes! We began 2019 with stock and bond markets battered from a series of year-end blows.
December 2018
*** As an update, please note that our stock portfolio composite is now beating the markets, up strongly in January 2019. Our bond portfolios are doing well too. ***
December 2017
Our stock portfolio had been powering along until mid-summer, with market-beating numbers overall, but we did not keep the pace into the end of the year.
July 2017
Warren Buffett and Charles Munger often say that it’s smart to invest in a business any fool can run, because someday a fool will.
December 2016
The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has nearly unprecedented implications: some predictable, most unpredictable, some excellent, others very bad.
September 2015
Confidence has been shaken by slower growth in China and concerns over its impact on emerging market economies.
December 2014
The last four months of 2014 were punctuated by a burst of volatility in stock and bond prices. Stock prices quickly went down a few percentage points, only to rally upwards even quicker.
December 2013
When Eugene Fama was a student, he researched various stock market forecasting schemes for his professor and concluded that predicting (or forecasting) future prices doesn’t work.
December 2012
Our clients had a fabulous year in 2012, with fixed income (bond) and equity (stock) portfolios all posting excellent returns.
December 2011
Since 2008 we have been watching three things: 1) how advanced economies (the U.S., Europe, Japan) handle the enormous additional debt they incurred in the past 2 decades;
December 2010
Jim Chanos, a hedge fund manager known for correctly betting against Enron, Tyco and the recent real estate mortgage bubble, told Fortune Magazine the reason he had become bearish on China.
December 2009
The horrible and terrifying deeds and words of the very renowned Pantagruel King of the Dipsodes, son of the giant Gargantua
December 2008
Altana AG, the world’s largest maker of additives for coatings and plastic parts, is based in Wesel, Germany.
November 2008
Summary: Current stock and bond prices reflect fears of catastrophic outcomes. In general, they nowadays bear almost no relationship with underlying intrinsic values.
December 2007
On a relative and an absolute basis, our investment results in 2007 have been dreary.
December 2006
Our equity portfolio performance increased 17.38% (net) this year, while the S&P 500 index including dividends was up 15.79% (gross).
December 2005
Our equity portfolio performance was up 2.48% (net) this year, while the S&P 500 Index including dividends was up 4.91% (gross).
December 2004
While we are gratified about our feat, it represents no great achievement in itself. All it means is that we have done somewhat better than most money managers.
December 2003
Now is a good time to remind ourselves that past performance does not guarantee future results.
July 2002
Optimistic analysts told you in 1998 and 1999 to invest in the Nasdaq (technology stocks).
September 2001
In the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attack in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 22% for the year.